In a new blog after his January 19 presentation for Friends of Science, explaining why there is “no climate emergency,” Dr. Roy Spencer points out that Canada is 50% cooler than the warming model simulations.
“Canada has huge year-to-year variability in temperatures due to its strong continental climate. So, to examine how observed surface temperature trends compare to climate model simulations, you need many of those simulations, each of which exhibits its own large variability,” writes Spencer.
“I examined the most recent 30-year period (1991-2020), using a total of 108 CMIP5 simulations from approximately 20 different climate models, and computed land-surface trends over the latitude bounds of 51N to 70N, and longitude bounds 60W to 130W, which approximately covers Canada. For observations, I used the same lat/lon bounds and the CRUTem5 dataset, which is heavily relied upon by the UN IPCC and world governments. All data were downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer.”
Then publishing different graphs, Spencer says: “Canada has been warming at only 50% the rate of the average of the CMIP5 models…”
Spencer notes that initiatives, the Paris Climate Accords and political decisions were and are all tied to these incorrect simulations.
“As you might be aware, proponents of those climate models often emphasize the general agreement between the models and observations over a long period of time, say since 1900.
“But this is misleading.”
Spencer makes his case in the new post, “I continue to contend that climate models are now producing at least twice as much warming as they should, probably due to an equilibrium climate sensitivity which is about 2X too high in the climate models. Given that the average CMIP6 climate sensitivity is even larger than in CMIP5 — approaching 4 deg. C — it will be interesting to see if the divergence between models and observations (which began around the turn of the century) will continue into the future.”