No mass gatherings. Stay-at-home orders. Nonessential business closures. Use of cloth face coverings. In April, these and other measures were adopted by states to try to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. and across the globe. A new study published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report presents data from a survey of Americans assessing their behaviors and attitudes about these mitigation measures. Senior author Charles A. Czeisler, MD, PhD, Chief of the Division of Sleep and Circadian Disorders at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, along with colleagues from the Brigham, the CDC, Monash University, and Austin Health, analyzed results of the survey administered in May, which found widespread support for the public health measures.
“We believe that routine assessment of public attitudes, behaviors, and beliefs related to COVID-19 and its mitigation should be a priority,” said Czeisler. “This is especially important given that currently, the most effective defense against transmission of COVID-19 is reducing person-to-person contact, which depends on public support and engagement.”
From May 5-12, 2020, a total of 4,042 adults in the U.S. were invited to complete a web-based survey administered by Qualtrics, LLC. Participants were recruited using methods to create panels representative of the 2010 U.S. Census by age, gender, race, and ethnicity. Overall, surveys completed by 2,221 U.S. adults were analyzed. Questions in the survey focused on public attitudes, behaviors and beliefs related to stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures and public health guidance.
Most respondents supported stay-at-home orders and nonessential business closures. Nationwide, 79.5 percent of participants supported these measures, with even greater support in New York City and Los Angeles. Respondents reported a very high level of adherence to public health recommendations designed to slow the spread of COVID-19, including usage of cloth face coverings when in public areas (74.1 percent), maintaining physical distancing (79.5 percent), and avoidance of gatherings of 10 or more people (85.9 percent).
More than 77 percent of adults reported self-isolating and 84 percent believed their state’s COVID-19 community mitigation strategies were the right balance or not restrictive enough. Most respondents (74.3 percent) reported that they would feel unsafe if restrictions were lifted at the time of the survey. Since then, stay-at-home orders have been lifted in many states across the nation.
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The authors note that responses to the survey are self-reported and may be subject to recall, response and social desirability biases. The survey also had a lower percentage of responses from Black people than is representative of the U.S. population.
In a preprint paper available on medRxiv, Czeisler and colleagues presented survey results from questionnaires administered from the week of April 2-8. In this survey, the team found broad support for stringent COVID-19 mitigation strategies and widespread concern about the possibility of an economic recession (79.2 percent) and open-endedness of the pandemic (72.2 percent). They found that nearly 4-out-of-5 Americans reported disruptions to their social lives, 4-in-10 reported disruption to work, sleep, family life, productivity and physical activity, and 1-in-5 reported disruption of sexual activity associated with the pandemic and its mitigation. Both surveys suggest that despite these concerns, Americans widely maintained their strong support for community mitigation strategies and public health recommendations in May.
“These findings suggest that Americans have prioritized their health amid the pandemic, notwithstanding considerable adverse economic, social and health consequences,” said Czeisler.
You are missing “The Corona Bonanza” for LDCs like Pakistan.The Opportunity is being missed out.
Bonanza 1
There will a temporary shock to the government fiscal revenues as Imports will crash,CIF rates of imports will also crash, domestic production has stopped (as tax on MRP less deductions is paid at the time of production and not sale),domestic MRP rates will also crash.That is Y the state has not passed the benefits of lower crude and palm rates to the people.dindooohindoo
The Bonus is in non-salary expenditures of the state,which are on ARC (Annual Rate contracts) or other RC.With crash in commodities and surplus capacities – Pakistan can easily make and re-negotiate its procurements. Large nations like Hindoosthan,will face disaster,as they will face supply risks,per se.W.r.t the purchases by the Pakistani state,the state can declare Force Majeure,especially on International contracts.
There is no immorality in this,as the supply and value chain of the suppliers to the state – will,in any case,declare Force Majeure – which will ensure that the suppliers will default on the government contracts.The suppliers will make supplies at ARCs,only to the extent of the existing stocks,as at March 15th,2020.They cannot be allowed to supply,from new purchases at the old ARC rates.
Global suppliers will be glad to dump their stocks – with depots in Pakistan – for sale to the Pakistani State.
This could easily reduce the costs by 30-50%, on a one time and recurring basis.Once this Cost is saved,in phases,the benefit of oil price crash on fuels and edible oils and also power tarriffs and fertilisers,can be passed on to the public.That will be pure jannat.
Bonanza 2
The Only Solution to the supply chain risk in USA/EU (w.r.t their supply chains in PRC) lies in massive robotics and AI – which will make humans obsolete in manufacturing and also,in part,in IT.The question is,what to do with the humans.That is Y the virus is sought – Simple !
For Pakistan – the crash in Raw Materials and cost of capital, availability of capital and crash in logistics costs will make manufacturing and exports viable.That makes existing unviable manufacturing units viable and new jobs and decline in NPAs.No fresh capacities should be launched,solely based on the current cost structure.Crash in costs plus the low labour costs in Pakistan and stable PKR – is the Alt-AI and Robotics
The Pakistani people should thank its prior leaders,that they made manufacturing unviable in Pakistan,and made it a trading nation. Had the state set up manufacturing units – they would be unviable,banks would be busted and there would have been mass skilled unemployment. Just look at Hindoosthan. dindooohindoo
This is the time for setting up manufacturing units – SME and others.
The military,food,telecom,technology and health security of the USA and EU is in the hands of the PRC.These nations will be FORCED to move at least 10-20% of their supply chain,to other nations.They have no choice.
Bonanza 3
The SBP and the treasury of the private sector, should suck in the Corona rate cuts and packages in EU/Nippon/North East Asia and the USA – and restructure the entire FX loan portfolio,w.r.t tenor,spreads,risk premiums, swaps and hedges. One simple way,is by trade finance,which is based on underlying trade and other activities with those nations.
Bonanza 4
After doing 3 and 4 above,the state should invite bids to build and repair infrastructure on BOOT basis.The Cost of infra should reduce by at least 30%,supplemented with long term soft loans and grants.
With viable manufacturing and exports,lower cost of debt – an already cheaper infra cost – will make infra financing and operations,all the more viable
Bonanza 5
To lock in the gains to the people and industry, the SBP and the State should lock in to NYMEX crude and futures,at current rates (on CBOT or with large funds etc.) – for as long as possible, with reasonable contangos or maximum back wardation.A large nation cannot do this – as it will move the premiums,in the derivatives market.
The State should thereafter, lock in the oil and gas rates – and then affix power and fertiliser tarriffs, for the same tenor – with a priority for industrial zones – after meeting the consumer needs.Edible oil contracts can also be struck with large funds,in the USA/EU.
This is also the time for the state to declare Force Majeuer on the ulra high cost RPP/ IPPs.With reduced power demand,the entire power demand of Pakistan, can be met from fuel and coal plants,at less than half of the previous marginal cost. For several people, this power supply can be free of cost,as the Marginal cost of power on current fuel costs, should be around 1-2 Rupees (which is not worth collecting from marginal users).
It is time to celebrate !